As geopolitics in the US, Europe, MENA and APAC continue to cause ripple effects across cyber, physical, and supply chain security, intelligence teams are under pressure to anticipate threats and guide stakeholder decision-making.

In Silobreaker’s latest webinar, risk expert Adriano Bosoni, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at RANE unpacked the Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast – part of RANE’s global forecasting work that helps organizations identify and anticipate emerging geopolitical and security risks.

The session, hosted by David Hunt, Senior Product Manager, Silobreaker, is part of a series showcasing the high-quality, trusted intelligence our partners bring into the platform.

From hybrid warfare in Eastern Europe to asymmetric threats in the Middle East, the forecast provides a clear-eyed view of the risks that intelligence professionals should be prioritizing.

Russia-Ukraine: The Next Phase of Warfare

Russia sees a Trump presidency as its best chance for a favorable Ukraine deal and is unlikely to wait for future U.S. political shifts. In nine months, Russia gained less than 1.5% of Ukraine. But despite slow territorial gains, Moscow is testing how much leverage it can gain. A formal peace deal is unlikely in Q4 2025, but pressure from sanctions and strategic calculations may push Russia toward negotiations in 2026.

Meanwhile, hybrid warfare – including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and sabotage – is intensifying. The risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation remains a concern.

Israel-Gaza-Iran: Fragile Stability and Asymmetric Threats

The ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is holding, but the questions its future phases raise – such as who will govern Gaza and what role Hamas will play – are fraught with complexity. U.S. diplomatic pressure is expected to maintain stability through Q4, though the potential for renewed conflict in 2026 looms large. Iran’s proxy networks, including militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, have proven to be very weak. However, asymmetric threats, including lone-wolf terrorism, remain active.

Global supply chains: Diversification Over Decoupling

Geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, continues to disrupt global supply chains. No country or company should expect to completely de-risk their supply chains, especially if they rely on rare earth and other critical minerals that China controls. While full decoupling is unrealistic, diversification is accelerating. Countries are investing in alternative sources for critical minerals with increased activity in Australia, Canada, and parts of Africa. Strategic stockpiling and recycling are also on the rise, and the EU is shifting its focus from ESG priorities to supply chain security.

Geopolitical cyber threat drivers

Politically motivated cyber threats remain a central concern. Russia continues to deploy disinformation and sabotage as part of its hybrid warfare strategy, while China focuses on espionage and intellectual property theft to bolster domestic capabilities. This should remain the case, unless a major geopolitical flashpoint, such as a Taiwan invasion, triggers an escalation in Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) from China.

Countering hybrid warfare

When it comes to the levers that democracies have for combatting Russian hybrid warfare and other geopolitical threats, democratic governments must prioritize transparency and accountability to counter disinformation and maintain public trust. NATO is enhancing its cyber capabilities, both defensively and offensively. Organizations themselves must monitor geopolitical shifts and identify sources of risk in order to understand the implications of emerging trends.

Turning awareness into advantage

The above forecast underscores the growing importance of scenario analysis and geopolitical forecasting. Businesses increasingly recognize that understanding global risks requires more than just data. It demands expert interpretation and strategic context.

This webinar is a timely reminder that Intelligence teams must move beyond information gathering to focus on implications and outcomes. By leveraging expert forecasts and analytical tools, intelligence professionals can better anticipate risks, inform strategy, and protect their organizations from emerging threats.

There are difficult decisions to be made by organizations across both the private and government sector over the next few months. As Q4 unfolds, the ability to cut through complexity and focus on what matters most will be essential. Whether monitoring hybrid warfare, assessing supply chain vulnerabilities, or tracking cyber activity, the role of strategic intelligence in supporting these efforts is clear.

The full webinar is available to watch on demand here.